Every five years, the Croatian National Bank conducts the so called “benchmark revision” of the methodology for external statistics calculation. The purpose of the revision is to achieve greater accuracy, fuller scope and better alignment of statistical indicators with international statistical standards. During revision, previously released indicators are aligned with the new methodology and standards and the existing sources of data and methods for their calculation are improved.

The 2024 revision of external statistics delivers improved data sources and calculation methods used by the CNB in the process of producing statistical indicators of the balance of payments, the international investment position and the external debt. The revised time series were released on 30 September 2024, along with the regular release of data for the second quarter of 2024 to coincide with the release of the revised historical data on the gross domestic product (GDP) in the framework of the so called “major revision” of the national accounts of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

The most important methodological improvements introduced by this revision include:

1) inclusion of the value of the balance of investments in real estate of non-residents in the RC and RC residents abroad, in the context of international investment direct position, extension of the time series of the flows related to these positions in the financial account of the balance of payments for the period 2002 – 2006;

2) revision of the estimate of the balance of euro cash in circulation in the RC in the framework of the financial account of the balance of payments, the international investment position and the external debt;

3) inclusion of the estimate of advance payments associated with revenue from travel (tourism) in the framework of the financial account of the balance of payments;

4) a change in the method of recording retained earnings from direct investment from the so called “all inclusive” concept to the so called "Current Operating Performance Concept" (COPC), which implies their recording in the current and financial account of the balance of payments;

5) a change in the calculation of Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) / Free on Board (FOB) adjustment for energy imports in 2022 and 2023 in the framework of the current account of the balance of payments.

Other changes pertain to regular corrections and additions to the existing data sources.

This revision of the external statistics indicators will not have a major impact on net errors and omissions in the balance of payments. Thus, for the 2013 – 2022 period, the total cumulative increase in negative net errors and omissions amounts to EUR 0.12bn (up from EUR 0.52bn to EUR 0.64bn), with the exception of 2023 when net errors and omissions were modified from EUR –1.8bn to EUR +1.27bn, mostly as a result of the new estimate of euro banknote exports.

Most revised years will see a drop in the current account balance, e.g. in 2023 the decrease will amount to EUR 0.5bn, largely as a result of the use of the COPC principle in the calculation of retained earnings in the framework of direct investments.

The revision will also have a negative impact on the international investment position. The negative balance of the international investment position at the end of 2023 has been increased by EUR –3.8bn and stands at EUR –20.5bn. This increase is mostly due to the increase in liabilities from direct investments following the inclusion of the balance of real estate owned by non-residents, while the liabilities from other investments fell due to a higher estimate of euro banknotes in circulation. By contrast, the balance of gross external debt at the end of 2023 will be decreased by EUR 3.1bn to EUR 60.9bn, also mostly due to a higher estimate of euro banknotes in circulation.

The effects on the balance of payments, the international investment position and the gross external debt are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Impact of revision on main components of external statistics, 2013 – 2023